Betting Sports-Does Anyone Ever Really Win?
This is question most asked by our survey respondents. The answer is unequivocally yes! Unfortunately, the truth is overwhelming majority of sports bettors do lose and the reason is simple. Most gamblers can’t handle the fact winning and losing comes in streaks –that’s the nature of the beast. When things go a little south, many gamblers begin “chasing” their money. On the other hand, when things pick up most gamblers don’t believe it will continue-so they shave down their bets and fail to “ride out” a winning streak to its full potential. Bottom line: Even if you hook up with a competent handicapper, you still have to learn to keep your emotions in check and manage your money the right way. Most legit handicappers will take time to help you outline a beneficial money management system which will allow you to stay afloat during the down times and to take advantage of winning streaks even more.
Tips On Becoming A Winner
Gambling in general requires a great deal of luck mixed with a little skill. Sports’ betting on the other hand requires a great deal of mixed with a little luck.
For sports bettors, the challenge is to get yours hands on as much information as you can with regard to a particular event. The idea is to use this information to compare each team or opponents probability of winning and then see how your conclusion weighs with experts that make the odds.
Yes, luck is a factor and many times will influence or even determine the outcome of a single game. When this happens it always seems to go against you, though over the long run it probably balances itself out. We tend to remember the bad luck bets rather than the good-luck ones.
Regardless, if you bet sports on a consistent basis, luck is not a major factor. Like everything else is life, it all boils down to whether you have made the necessary preparations to become knowledgeable enough about the event(s) you plan to bet on. This includes investing time and effort to learn the sport and all its nuances; weighing all the factors in an objective, non-biased manner, and doing it on a consistent basis. If you can, you will come out on the winning side more times than not.
Before getting into more some specific suggestions and strategies to help make you a winner in sports betting, remember this: It’s you against the odds maker, not the place or person you are placing the bets with. Think of the sportsbook simply as a middleman, who like all middlemen in history operate on a small profit.
All the bookmaker wants is for an equal number of people to bet on each side, i.e. half the bets on one side, the sports book will adjust the betting line in hopes of getting people to bet the other side.
But, in reality you are going up against the oddsmaker, as it is his views on each team’s chances, which determine the pointspread. With that said, a simple flip of the coins gives you a 50% chance of winning, but it’s not too scientific and you still end up losing the vig. To break even, i.e. to overcome the sports book profit, means you only have to win 52.4% of your bets.
That means achieving a modest winning percentage of 55% is very realistic with a little homework. By the same token, reaching a 65% winning rate is definitely achievable with some legwork and allows you to make a comfortable profit.
With that said, here are some tips to help make your sports betting experience enjoyable and hopefully profitable:
- Understand the sports you are betting: Being a sports fan is one thing, but
Actually “knowing” a sport is another. Investing time and research into a particular sport can reward you with great dividends. Remember, knowledge is power, especially when it comes to sports wagering.
The first place to start is with your daily newspaper. There you can find a wealth of information needed to make an informed decision-standings, records, box scores with detailed game summaries, injuries, transactions, individual statistics, etc. Next, pick up some of the many magazines, newspaper and journals dedicated to sports, Some cover the whole gamut, like The Sporting News and Sports Illustrated, while others are devoted to one particular sport, such as Football Weekly or The Hockey News. League and team web sites can also provide you with a wealth of specific information on the sport.
One thing to keep in mind when reading is not to become overburdened with statistics, as most are meaningless when it comes to betting. Rather, they make for good bar talk and water cooler arguments.
Instead, pay attention to the critical numbers and player information of the particular sport you are betting on. For example, in baseball it is the pitcher; in football, the quarterback.
Whereas reading the stats can help you learn about a sport, observation can take you the next level when it comes to learning. Therefore, watch as many games as you can. Thanks to cable and satellite TV, you can now watch just about every game in every sport. And in most cases, if is very inexpensive, especially if you take into account the rewards subscribing to such a service can bring.
While watching, keeps notes which you may not read about, such as an unlucky bounce, dropped ball or a bad cell. These are not mentioned in box scores and news stories, but can really help when trying to evaluate a particular match-up. These small yet key elements can be the difference between a winning bet and a losing one.
- Understand the teams or individuals you are betting: know their strengths and weaknesses. Look at them in a logical, objective manner, putting aside personal preferences—bet with your head, not your heart.
If you are betting over the long-term, don’t be too jumpy by judging a team on its last performance. Along the same lines, don’t be stubborn. If you made a mistake, admit it and move on. More people lose more than they have to by insisting their initial projections were right. If a team or player is underachieving, acknowledge and re-analyze your judgment.
Before betting, make sure you have a detailed understanding of each team involved. For example, note overall records, home and away records, how the team fares on artificial turf compared to natural grass, night games vs. day games, lefties against righties, etc. Compare the strengths and weaknesses of each teams line-up. In football, compare the offensive rushing and passing statistics against the defensive rushing and chances. For example, in football, defense more times than not ones. People, who do not bet often, usually bet the offense and lose. The same holds true in baseball, where a top-rated pitcher will more than often neutralize a power-hitting team.
In today s world of free agency, keep track of how teams change from season-to-season and for that matter, how they change after a trading deadline when a flurry of activity usually takes place. Through salary caps and expansion in the major sports, it is getting harder to keep a quality team together year-in and year-out.
Also, look for teams, which change—for the better and worse—during the course of the year as players gel or problems arise. If you can spot these trends before the odds-maker, you can have a good run—usually three to five games—before adjustments are made.
Be on the alert for value: Successful sports betting comes down to getting the most value on every bet. That means betting the side you feel has the least risk based on your assessment of the teams and the oddsmaker’s spread. For example, if you feel a team should get 4 points and the oddsmakers peg it at 7, then you are getting good value.
In most cases, good value falls to the underdog, they do not like to bet it. But bear in mind, betting the underdog means the team does not have to win, it just has to lose by less than the pointspread in order for you to win. This is usually the case when the spread is large, as most teams tend not to “run up” the score. Usually when they get a comfortable lead, they replace their starters and do what they can to get the game over with. The pointspread is the furthest thing from their mind. These types of bets can often be in college football.
If you do your homework, you will find during the course of a season games the oddsmakers “missed.” That is, they intended to overlook or misjudge the match-up for whatever reason. This tends to happen when a large number of games are being posted at the same time, such as during college football or college basketball. They may be the “experts,” but even they can lose track of a game in all the flurry of activity.
Finally, watch the numbers themselves, especially in the most popular betting sport—football. Minor change in the spread can have substantial implications. For example, the difference between 3 and 3- ½ can be the difference between a win or tie, as more football games are decided by 3 points than any other margin. Also, pay attention to the numbers with regard to a game’s scoring nuances. In football, teams can only score in certain ways, from 1- to 7- points in one shot.
Go against the majority: Some teams-Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bulls, Duke New York Yankees-have gathered a very strong following regardless of how they do against the spread. For whatever reason, each year certain teams capture the public’s attention.
When this happens, you can usually find a good value bet since the spread is more than likely adjusted in anticipation of the large amount of money the public may bet on this team. In these cases, the underdog is rewarded with a larger pointspread than it deserves.
Don’t overreact: While a team’s current condition and recent record is a major consideration when factoring in your bets, do not put too much emphasis on the most recent game. The score and / or result may not actually reflect a team’s actual form.
Remember, every team has a bad day for a variety of reasons: injuries, bad calls, weather, fatique, etc. Also keep in mind the “official” score and stats” For example, a team is trailing 14 – 10 late in the fourth quarter.
With time running down they punch it
- Go against the majority: some teams—Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bulls, Duke, New York Yankees—have gathered a very strong following regardless of how they do against the spread. For whatever reason, each year certain teams capture the public s attention.
When this happens, you can usually find a good value bet since the spread is more than likely adjusted in anticipation of the large amount of money the public may bet on this team. In these cases, the underdog is rewarded with a larger pointspread than it deserves.
· Don’t overreact: While a teams current condition and recent record is a major consideration when factoring in your bets, do not put too much emphasis on the most recent game. The score and/or result may not actually reflect a team’s actual form.
Remember, every team has a bad day calls, weather, fatigue, etc. Also keep in mind the “official score and stats” and the “true score and stats.” For example, a team is trailing 14-10 late in the fourth quarter.
With time running down they punch it across the goal line but the running back fumbles and its recovered and run back 101 yards for a touchdown. The box score will show a final of 21- 10, yet it should have been 17 – 14. Keeping detailed records will help you remember this the next time the teams play each other.
· Note where a team is playing: We’ve all heard of the home field advantage, but in betting we need to pay attention to whether a team is playing at home or on the road. While the advantage varies from sport-to-sport and team-to-team, it is always something to keep in mind. Some sports like basketball have heavy home field advantages. Also, teams, which may have had a poor road trip, will be re-energized coming home and do well.
Pay attention to good road teams. Some make a habit of performing well on the road. Also be on the lookout for teams coming off long trips, i.e., traveling across the country, playing back-to-back games, playing day/night games.
This is why it is a good idea to project ahead by looking at a team’s schedule.
Doing this may give you some advantages against those odds makers, which tend to simply favor the home team.
- Pay attention to injuries: Check the injury reports, but be careful to judge the importance of them. Is the injury to a key player and if is, is it bad enough to affect his play or take him out of the game? How to abort the back-up? Is he good enough, or does his playing put the team at a severe disadvantage?
This comes from knowing the team, because sometimes a bench player on one team is starter on another and therefore, just as qualified. Also, some bench player on one team is a starter on another and therefore, just as qualified. Also, some bench players will come out fired up, knowing this is there chance to make an impression.
Also, injuries are usually a good tame to get a good value bet, since the public generally overreacts to them and tends to tilt the scale.
- Understand the weather, field and stadium conditions: Knowing these are especially important when betting over / under.
- Knowing a team will tell you if it is a warm weather team which has trouble in freezing conditions
Knowing a team will tell you if it is a warm weather team, which has trouble in freezing conditions. Similarly, rain can lower the score of a football game since it usually forces teams to run the ball.
Also, pay attention to the stadium. Many arenas have their own wind and noise conditions, as well as other factors. For example, in baseball, it is a rare game when the score is low in Colorado.
- Watch for motivated teams: During the course of a season, different games have more meaning than others for different teams. For example, if a team has clinched a playoff spot and is going up against the worst team, it its all.
Likewise, a team may be in spot to knock a team out of the playoff. Or, it may want to revenge a bad loss earlier in the season. Rivalries also push many of the statistics out the window. In the more heated ones, it makes no difference how good or bad one team may be compared to the other, as the games are usually close.
- Be objective and selective: As we said earlier, bet with your head not your heart.
Use the knowledge you gained to make your bet, not emotional considerations. You may have grown up liking a team but that does not mean you have to bet it to win every time. The same holds true for your alma mater. Just because you went to the school doesn’t mean you have to bet its teams.
By the same token, be selective in your bets. You are better off concentrating your efforts on a few games instead of the whole board. For example, betting every football game each week will pretty much guarantee you lose money.
- Don’t chance losers: Don’t throw good money at bad money. This is the biggest
Mistake unsuccessful bettors make. Even the most knowledgeable sports bettors hit losing streaks, and an all too-common mistakes is to double your next bet in order is to recoup your losses.
Instead, stop, sit down and check your records. Re-evaluate your approach. And while you are in a funk, lower the amount you bet until the winnings start coming together.
Then when you do hit a winning streak, increase your stake since you will have extra money to play with. But make sure not to become overly confident and bet the house. Keep your head and senses, because like loosing streaks, winning steaks also come to an end. That is why they are called steaks.
- Be patient: Learning how to successfully bet on sports is the same as learning
any new skill. It takes time. Yes, it may look easy when an experienced person does it, but bear in mind they have been doing it for years. It takes time to learn and understand all the numbers and other nuances before you can feel confident.
When starting out, place small wagers, increasing as you become better and as value bets pop up. In today’s world there are sporting events to bet on everyday, so don’t feel compelled to bet for the sake of betting or because everyone else is doing it. Remember, there is nothing wrong with not betting a particular event, even the Super Bowl.
- Manage your money: Managing your equally as important as evaluating the bet.
Increase your bets only when you are showing a profit, and decrease it when you are losing.
Set limits and budgets and stay within them. Then fix a percentage of your betting capital for your bets. The pros will tell you to risk no more than 5% on any single bet, no matter how confident you feel.
- Keep good records: This is essential if you want to win. How else can you
follow trends, both on the field and with your bets. For example, if you are on a losing streak you can tell if maybe you unconsciously changed your betting pattern. It will also tell you know teams fare against the spread. For some teams, their actual record compared to their actual record against the spread is a stark contrast, so it is important to keep track of these things.
