By William Foote of http://www.superiordaily.com
By William D. Foote
We have received a very positive response to our Money Management Series. As suspected, most recreational gamblers know very little about proper money management. Today, in Part 4 of this series, we want to discuss selectivity. Most of you will be very surprised at what we are about to write, as it is contrary to popular belief. It may even ruffle the feathers of certain professionals that preach selectivity.
Question, would you rather win 60% betting a very select few games or win 54% betting many more games.
Most amateurs would say 60% is better and some professionals would agree. To us, it depends on what the main objective is. If the main objective is to have a pretty winning percentage and minimize risk, then playing a limited amount of games and picking 60% is better. However, that is not our objective and we doubt it is the objective of most gamblers.
The main objective for serious players is to win the most amount of money. It is certainly what we are in it for, as we bet on sports for a living! We depend on it to feed our children and put roofs over our head. We advise all of our clients to play the same way we do, because that is the only way we know how.
You are probably wondering what the hell we are talking about. How can 54% make more money than 60%? It is actually very straightforward.
Let us present a very simple illustration of a very complex concept. Many other factors could serve to further prove this point, such as the accelerated % of bankroll theory, etc. Unfortunately, it would take pages and pages to demonstrate. For now, let us illustrate the main theory.
Handicapper A bets 100 games at $100 per bet. He wins 60 and loses 40, which means he is picking 60% winners. 60 wins multiplied by $100 equals $6000 in gross winnings. 40 losses multiplied by $110 equals $4400 in gross losses. $6000 in wins minus $4400 in losses equals a net profit of $1600.
Handicapper B bets 1000 games at $100 per bet. He wins 540 and loses 460, which means he is picking 54% winners. 540 wins multiplied by $100 equals $54,000 in gross winnings. 460 losses multiplied by $110 equals $50,600 in gross losses. $54,000 in wins minus $50,600 in losses equals a net profit of $3,400.
Handicapper B more than doubled the profit of handicapper A. If you compound these profits with the percentage of bankroll system we advise, Handicapper B ends up making more than triple that of Handicapper A.
The down side is, when you are on a cold streak you can take a beating. This is one of the reasons we advise a small percentage of bankroll per bet (refer to previous Money Management Part 1). So what does this all mean?
To us, it means we will bet any game that has a higher than 52.3% (break even point with 10% vig) chance of winning. If you pass up on a game that is a 54% winning proposition in the name of selectivity, you are leaving money on the table.
Certainly, the more bets you make, the more money at risk. If you are adverse to risk, then sports betting all together may not be the best investment for you. For those, we would advise a money market account, US Treasury bonds or a CD. However, if you are serious about bottom line profit betting on sports, selectivity doesn’t pay.