Betting Baseball Totals, the Easy Way
Betting totals in Major League Baseball can be a very complex and daunting task at times. That being said I have decided to break it down and provide a simple man’s guide on how and what to look for when you are looking at betting the over or the under on the base paths.
Reading a Total Line
Most sportsbooks post a total and attach a money line along each proposition, the over or under. For instance if the Reds and playing the Cubs and the posted total is 9 runs, the books may post a 9 under -123 and a 9 over -110. Simply put, that means bet the under 9 and you will have to risk $123 dollars to win $100 and $110 to win 100 if you like the over. As you may have guessed the under may be a heavier public favorite due to the higher odds placed with the under. If you are a contrarian bettor this is an easy indicator way to choose which way to wager.
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Is it Pitching?
As with handicapping Major League Baseball for a money line or run line winner, starting pitching as well as bullpen ERA’s should weigh heavily in your decision on which way to go when betting the total. The best combination to look for is finding pitchers that carry similar ERA’s either both very high or both very low. For instance, if Randy Johnson and Johan Santana were to face on another, the posted total may be around 7.5 or 7.With combined ERA’s of less than 7, the under may be a solid bet. That being said, there is a flip side to this angle. The average public bettor may be quick to bet the under given the aforementioned ERA’s of both pitchers. A great handicapper digs further. Taking a look at the starters previous few starts can tell us a few things about the likely outcome of a ballgame. For instance, glancing at pitch counts can make a huge difference in a hurler’s upcoming performance. If his pitch count is well into the 100’s over his last few starts (this varies with each individual pitcher as some have higher stamina than others), there is a very good likelihood that the game could be turned over the bullpen awfully early. That means taking a look at bullpen ERA’s is extremely important as well. An unreliable/reliable bullpen or a team with a non-established/established closer can play a huge role in the outcome of total result.
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Is it Hitting?
Sometimes starting pitching may mean absolutely nothing when betting a total. If you run into a set of teams that is knocking the cover off the ball, Sandy Koufax, Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson could be on the mound and it wouldn’t make a difference. Take for instance the red hot Tigers. The Tigers had a team BA in the mid 270’s last year but their first 5 ballgames of 2005 have seen that number rise to the mid 280’s. As a result they have hit the over with their opponents 3 of their first 5 games. Overall team BA’s are not as important a factor when taking a look at the total in a ballgame. How a team has done overall the last 10 ballgames paints a much better picture on how a team is faring at the plate and how they will probably fare on the night in question.
Is it Location?
Yes, it is location. Location has a huge role in deciding the total of a ballgame. Unlike sports such as basketball and football, where the court sizes must be all uniform throughout the leagues, Major League baseball does not have specified rules on exact dimensions (aside from distances in the infield). In other words, the left field line at Yankee Stadium may be 5 feet shorter than the one at Comerica Park in Detroit. An example of how a stadium can play a major role in a total is Coors Field in Colorado. Now, dimensions aside, the ball carries awfully well in the thin air of the Mile High City and due to this fact the run totals are much higher. The average number of runs scored at Coors is a very jumbo 14.4 per game. Conversely, the average run total at a stadium with a very deep outfield like Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City is just 9.8.
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Top Under Teams of 2004
Montreal – 21-35
Toronto – 21-35
Chicago (Cubs) -24-33
Top Over Teams of 2004
Baltimore – 37-17
Arizona – -35 -22
Boston – -32 – 25
Anytime you can combined more than one factor, such as two pitchers with low ERA’s, at Kaufmann Stadium with teams that are hitting in the low 270’s, you have the makings for an under call as long as the price is right. Keep in mind it’s rare you will ever see a total posted under 7, this is where the bettor has an advantage. Take what the dealer gives you and don’t hesitate to play a high or low total, numbers don’t lie, especially in the long run and especially in Major League Baseball. That’s all for now. Good luck and as always Bet Sharp and Play Sharp. Bob Aggarwal
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Baseball Runlines versus Moneylines
A runline is baseball´s version of a pointspread.
In football and basketball pointspreads, the odds (which affect payout) are usually at a standard of -110, and the spread itself (which affects win/loss) is typically moved to balance action.
In baseball, the spread itself is fixed at -1.5 runs, and the attached odds are changed to balance action. I am often asked why the spread is always -1.5 runs. The answer is simple: Baseball games cannot end in a tie so a spread of -.5 would have no impact, and spread of -1 would result in a push a large portion of the time (27% of MLB games this year have been decided by 1 run). By making the runline -1.5 runs, the favorite team is forced to win by 2 runs, and some real intrigue is added to the wager.
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This does confuse some people, so here is an example to illustrate further. In basketball, if the Lakers were -1.5 (-110) favorites and there was a lot of action on them, the line would be moved to -2 (-110) and then -2.5 (-110) in an effort to get bettors to play the other team. However, in baseball if the Dodgers were a -1.5 (-110) favorite and were taking action, the line would be moved to -1.5 (-115) and then -1.5 (-120) to balance action.
Thus, the only time there is a difference in outcome between the runline and moneyline on any game is when the favorite team wins by exactly 1 run. In exchange for the extra risk involved in wagering on a runline favorite, bettors are rewarded with a much better payout. As an example, let´s look at the games discussed in my last issue. To recap, there had been 17 games with favorites of -250 or higher at the time and the favorites were 15-2. If you wagered to win $100 on each of these games you would have made $970 on a total risk of $4530, for a 21.4% return. However, if you played these same 17 games on the runline, you would have lost two additional games (a pair of 6-5 wins) and only earned $700. That´s the bad news. The good news is that you would have only risked $2400, and thus earned a return of 29.2%! The average line on these favorites on the moneyline was -266, but the average line on the runline was -1.5 (-141). There is no formula for converting runlines and moneylines, as it depends on the teams involved. But the difference typically ranges from 70 to 140 cents, with the difference growing as the moneyline gets high. Thus a -260 favorite on the moneyline would typically have a runline of -1.5 (-120) to -1.5 (-160) while a -120 favorite on the moneyline might have a runline of -1.5 (+150) to -1.5 (+170).
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Betting the dog on the runline has the opposite effect – you win more often (the 1-run losses), but you win less money than you would have betting the moneyline when the team you are betting on wins outright. The key is to find the right opportunity to use both types of lines, and thus giving you another weapon to fight the bookmakers with. Again, I am not advocating runlines or moneylines, favorites or underdogs, etc., as each has their place in a bettor´s arsenal.
There are a couple of situations where we see players/handicappers use runlines more than average. First, we see lots of runline action on the favorites in big spreads. Why bet Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks at -300 when you get bet him at -1.5 (-160) if you expect them to win by 5? However, if you think it will be a tight game, then maybe the moneyline is better. This is where a team´s record in 1-run games is important. This data is readily available to bettors, but when I ask about a team´s record in 1-run games, most people don´t know. As examples, how many of you would have guessed that the Padres lead the majors in 1-run wins (with 11) or that the mighty Yankees would currently possess a losing record (5-6) in 1-run games?
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The other scenario we see occasionally is a player trying to lock in a profit by betting both the favorite on the runline and the underdog on the moneyline in the same game. For example, lets look at today´s Rockies/Padres game. The Rockies are -1.5 (+140) on the runline and the Padres are +130 on the moneyline. Betting $100 on both teams would guarantee a profit ($40 or $30) as long as the Rockies don´t win by a single run (that would result in a loss of $200). This is a risky set of wagers and not one I have ever used personally, but when used properly it can add to your bankroll, as I have seen players profit by using it. Maybe look for teams that don´t have many 1-run games.
From the House point-of-view, we earn a higher percentage on run-line wagers (about 4%) than we do on moneylines (about 2%) but this is due in large part to the use of a graduated dime line for moneylines and a 20-cent spread for runlines. Handle on moneylines is roughly three times that of runlines, but this ratio is down from previous years as runlines become more popular to the average bettor.
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